The UFC heavyweight division is mid-shuffle, determining the new pecking order among the top-ranked contenders as everyone waits for Jon Jones to confirm his heavyweight debut.
The UFC began in 1993 with fighters of all sizes competing against each other. Four years later, UFC 12 introduced weight classes: heavyweight, for fighters 200 pounds and above, and lightweight.
Last month it was Alexander Volkov jumping into the top five of the division, and now we have two more top contenders trying to maintain their spots in that group. The main event fighters are ranked close together, but the odds are as steeply contrasted as their fighting styles.
Prelims begin at 5 p.m. Saturday on ESPN+, and the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Heavyweight main event: No. 2 Curtis Blaydes (-420) vs. No. 4 Derrick Lewis (+335)
- Everyone’s favorite underdog until he became one of the greatest fighters in history. Frankie Edgar always looked undersized. But that never stopped him from beating the best lightweights on the.
- Who's the greatest of all time? Updated 2 hrs, 27 mins ago. It's a source of endless debate: who are the greatest MMA fighters of all time? The consensus ranking compiles our member lists, then updates in real time.
When odds were first released, Blaydes was a more reasonable sub-3-to-1 favorite. But steady action has pushed his price further and further. It's perhaps a little surprising to see such extreme odds in a heavyweight matchup, where any fighter is one strike away from unconsciousness. Certainly, Lewis has the 'puncher's chance.' But a look at the performance metrics support Blaydes as having advantages everywhere else.
Takedowns early and often have been a key part of Blaydes' normal game plan, and that should remain the case here. His striking was originally just a setup for his wrestling, though more recently he has shown that once he wears an opponent down, he can use his hands to finish a fight. Given Lewis' subpar wrestling, expect Blaydes to exploit that discrepancy out of the gates. And assuming he's successful, he should slow Lewis down and force him to drop hands as the fight wears on.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Kamaru Usman of Nigeria punches Gilbert Burns of Brazil in their UFC welterweight championship fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main reason for this is that she’s done exceptionally well in the UFC, as well as in other sports, including boxing and kickboxing. In fact, according to some, she is the best female boxer of all time. As this list is about female UFC fighters, we need to mention that her current ranking in the UFC women’s bantamweight rankings is #2.
But what about the power of Lewis? He obviously has heavy hands, though he's not particularly accurate when throwing them. And he averages about half the rate of strike attempts compared to Blaydes when at a distance. Lewis has the lowest volume of output on the feet of any established fighter on the card. So, this upset potential boils down being able to land a big clean shot when Blaydes is closing in and also how many times Lewis can force a position reset. Those fleeting moments will be his only chance, and could disappear altogether if he becomes exhausted on the mat.
Blaydes has faced plenty of stiff talent, including excellent power strikers. He knows how to stay out of danger and will commit to a dominant game plan. Eventually, he should find himself in a position to overwhelm a fatigued Lewis and get a finish.
E+ recommends: Money line play on Blaydes. Fight does not go the distance as a parlay leg. Blaydes inside the distance or by TKO will be the cheapest play for the matchup.
Best bets elsewhere on the card
The co-main event pits the sixth- and seventh-ranked women's bantamweights against each other. Both Ketlen Vieira (-270) and Yana Kunitskaya (+220) like to push the pace on the feet. But neither has scored a knockdown to date, and it's unlikely that either will get a big edge while trading at a distance. It's the closer positions that will decide things.
Kunitskaya spends a lot of time in the clinch and has owned positional control while there. If she can keep the fight on the fence, she'll get an edge. However, her takedown defense has been questionable so far. Meanwhile, Vieira has gotten the fight to the mat more often, and she has shown better control once there. She'll want to get this fight to the ground, and she'll have the advantage there.
Best Ufc Fighters All Time 2019
E+ recommends: Money line play on Vieira.
Deep on the undercard, there's value lurking on an underdog. Luis Pena's (+155) performance metrics look better on paper than those of Drakkar Klose (-180) in nearly every way. Though Pena is still relatively new -- and he's stepping up in competition -- he's also still improving his game. His return has been dropping since opening, but there's still some value left on the 'dog here.
Best Ufc Fighters Of All Time Ranked
E+ recommends: Money line lean on Pena.
Best Ufc Fighters Of All Time 2020
Check out these photos from the fights at UFC 258 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. (Fight and venue photos courtesy of the UFC via Getty Images)
Best Fighters Of All Time
UFC 258: Green v RoweLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Phil Rowe punches Gabe Green in their welterweight fight…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Phil Rowe punches Gabe Green in their welterweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreUFC 258: Green v RoweLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (L-R) Gabe Green punches Phil Rowe in their welterweight fight…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (L-R) Gabe Green punches Phil Rowe in their welterweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreGabe Green (10-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC) def. Phil Rowe (7-3 MMA, 0-1 UFC) via unanimous decisionGabe GreenUFC 258: Ewell v GutierrezLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Andre Ewell punches Chris Gutierrez in their 140-pound catchweight…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Andre Ewell punches Chris Gutierrez in their 140-pound catchweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreUFC 258: Ewell v GutierrezLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Chris Gutierrez kicks Andre Ewell in their 140-pound catchweight…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Chris Gutierrez kicks Andre Ewell in their 140-pound catchweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreChris Gutierrez (16-3-2 MMA, 4-1-1 UFC) def. Andre Ewell (17-7 MMA, 4-3 UFC) via unanimous decisionChris GutierrezUFC 258: Viana v MartinLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (L-R) Polyana Viana of Brazil kicks Mallory Martin in their…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (L-R) Polyana Viana of Brazil kicks Mallory Martin in their strawweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreUFC 258: Viana v MartinLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Mallory Martin punches Polyana Viana of Brazil in their…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Mallory Martin punches Polyana Viana of Brazil in their strawweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)morePolyana Viana (12-4 MMA, 3-3 UFC) def. Mallory Martin (7-4 MMA, 1-2 UFC) via submissionPolyana VianaUFC 258: Muhammad v LimaLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Dhiego Lima of Brazil punches Belal Muhammad in their…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Dhiego Lima of Brazil punches Belal Muhammad in their welterweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreUFC 258: Muhammad v LimaLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Belal Muhammad punches Dhiego Lima of Brazil in their…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Belal Muhammad punches Dhiego Lima of Brazil in their welterweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreBelal Muhammad (18-3 MMA, 9-3 UFC) def. Dhiego Lima (15-8 MMA, 4-6 UFC) via unanimous decisionBelal MuhammadUFC 258: Vieira v HernandezLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (L-R) Rodolfo Vieira of Brazil punches Anthony Hernandez in their…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (L-R) Rodolfo Vieira of Brazil punches Anthony Hernandez in their middleweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreUFC 258: Vieira v HernandezLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Anthony Hernandez punches Rodolfo Vieira of Brazil in their…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Anthony Hernandez punches Rodolfo Vieira of Brazil in their middleweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreAnthony Hernandez (8-2 MMA, 2-2 UFC) def. Rodolfo Vieira (7-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) via submissionAnthony HernandezUFC 258: Pitolo v MarquezLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Maki Pitolo punches Julian Marquez in their middleweight fight…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Maki Pitolo punches Julian Marquez in their middleweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreUFC 258: Pitolo v MarquezLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Julian Marquez punches Maki Pitolo in their middleweight fight…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Julian Marquez punches Maki Pitolo in their middleweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreJulian Marquez (8-2 MMA, 2-1 UFC) def. Maki Pitolo (13-8 MMA, 1-4 UFC) via submissionJulian MarquezUFC 258: Simon v KelleherLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Brian Kelleher punches Ricky Simon in their featherweight fight…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Brian Kelleher punches Ricky Simon in their featherweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreUFC 258: Simon v KelleherLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (L-R) Ricky Simon punches Brian Kelleher in their featherweight fight…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (L-R) Ricky Simon punches Brian Kelleher in their featherweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreRicky Simon (18-3 MMA, 6-2 UFC) def. Brian Kelleher (23-11 MMA, 6-5 UFC) via unanimous decisionRicky SimonUFC 258: Gastelum v HeinischLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (L-R) Ian Heinisch kicks Kelvin Gastelum in their middleweight fight…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (L-R) Ian Heinisch kicks Kelvin Gastelum in their middleweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreUFC 258: Gastelum v HeinischLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Kelvin Gastelum punches Ian Heinisch in their middleweight fight…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Kelvin Gastelum punches Ian Heinisch in their middleweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreKelvin Gastelum (17-6 MMA, 11-6 UFC) def. Ian Heinisch (14-4 MMA, 3-3 UFC) via unanimous decisionKelvin GastelumUFC 258: Barber v GrassoLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Maycee Barber punches Alexa Grasso of Mexico in their…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Maycee Barber punches Alexa Grasso of Mexico in their flyweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreUFC 258: Barber v GrassoLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Alexa Grasso of Mexico punches Maycee Barber in their…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Alexa Grasso of Mexico punches Maycee Barber in their flyweight fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreAlexa Grasso (13-3 MMA, 5-3 UFC) def. Maycee Barber (8-2 MMA, 3-2 UFC) via unanimous decisionAlexa GrassoUFC 258: Usman v BurnsLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (L-R) Gilbert Burns of Brazil punches Kamaru Usman of Nigeria…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (L-R) Gilbert Burns of Brazil punches Kamaru Usman of Nigeria in their UFC welterweight championship fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreUFC 258: Usman v BurnsLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Kamaru Usman of Nigeria punches Gilbert Burns of Brazil…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: (R-L) Kamaru Usman of Nigeria punches Gilbert Burns of Brazil in their UFC welterweight championship fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreUFC 258: Usman v BurnsLAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: Kamaru Usman of Nigeria reacts after his victory over Gilbert…LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 13: Kamaru Usman of Nigeria reacts after his victory over Gilbert Burns of Brazil in their UFC welterweight championship fight during the UFC 258 event at UFC APEX on February 13, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)moreKamaru Usman (18-1 MMA, 13-0 UFC) def. Gilbert Burns (19-4 MMA, 12-4 UFC) via TKOKamaru UsmanKamaru UsmanKamaru UsmanDana WhiteDana White